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Pandemic as a complex system, control of the epidemic using indicator-sets, children and adolescents in the corona pandemic, politics and democracy under pandemic conditions

The 8th theses paper expands the tried and tested tripartite division of epidemiology, prevention and social policy by a preceding chapter, which proposes a conceptual understanding of the epidemic that differs from the common, biological-linear view. A total of four topics are dealt with:

  • The pandemic as a complex system,
  • Control through indicators and development of indicator sets,
  • Children and adolescents in the corona pandemic,·
  • Politics and democracy under pandemic conditions.

 

Theses paper 8 tries to gain more perspective, primarily by proposing a concept for understanding the pandemic, secondly by proposing a set of indicators suitable for controlling, thirdly by further deepening the knowledge of the children and adolescents in the pandemic, and fourth, by attempting political interpretation to bid.

Summary:
The proposed concept is that the epidemic should be seen as a complex system. The individual persons represent the elements of the system, the infection as a form of interaction, the infection processes as a result of virus, host and environmental properties according to the rules of this interaction, that are indeed present in complex systems, but are not visible. Success-oriented handling of an epidemic requires knowledge of its essential characteristics (attractors, e.g. age dependency), the expansion of knowledge through iterative interventions (e.g. evaluation of school closings), and as the basis of all efforts, social self-confidence and openness to different approaches.

A concrete proposal for a multidimensional indicator set for control is presented, which, based on the draft of the German Hospital Society, focuses on age stratification and a reporting rate specified according to vaccination status, comorbidity, socio-economic factors and positivity rate along with test frequency. Outcome indicators such as hospitalization (also specified according to comorbidity and vaccination protection), intensive care and the need for ventilation are also used. However, a political line in the transition to multidimensional control systems is currently not discernible.

During the pandemic, children and adolescents made a significant contribution to society and, in doing so, accepted serious disadvantages themselves. In all measures that will apply in the future, your best interests must be given priority.

Instead of linearity and subordination, autonomy, ambiguity or VUCA (variability, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) are the words that have to be implemented in politics today.


Contact:
Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 3
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58559
E-Mail: gglaeske@uni-bremen.de

Prof. Dr. Philip Manow
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 7
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58580
E-Mail: manow@uni-bremen.de

The group of authors supplements the statements from theses 4 and 6.1 on intensive medicine care


Contact:
Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 3
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58559
E-Mail: gglaeske@uni-bremen.de

Prof. Dr. Philip Manow
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 7
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58580
E-Mail: manow@uni-bremen.de

Health care research with secondary data: Report on cannabis-containing medicines based on prescriptions from BKK Mobil presented in an online press conference.


Contact:
Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 3
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58559
E-Mail: gglaeske@uni-bremen.de

Apotheker Lutz Muth
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 3
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58530
E-Mail: lmuth@uni-bremen.de

The Innovation Report 2020 evaluates drugs that entered the German market in 2017

This year's Innovation Report rates 31 active ingredients of medicines launched in 2017.

 

 

Innovation Report 2020:

long version

short version

Presentation of Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske


Contact:
Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 3
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58559
E-Mail: gglaeske@uni-bremen.de

Improvement of the Databases | Strategic Development of Prevention Measures | Protection of Civil Rights

The aim of the present paper is to scientifically elucidate the current epidemiological crisis and to draw recommendations from the given situation for effective preventive measures. The proposals for prevention are placed within a sociopolitical framework that, in the view of the authors, is inextricably connected with the current circumstances. The comprehensive analytical section is preceded by a brief overview of the established positions. The authors endeavour to clearly point out the facts and issues at hand, thereby avoiding any criticism of the actors who in the past few weeks have had to make crucial decisions on the basis of information that one might say was “even more incomplete” than it is today. The statements made in this position paper are intended as a constructive contribution towards supporting the strategies taken in the coming weeks.


Contact:
Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 3
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58559
E-Mail: gglaeske@uni-bremen.de

Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske Foto Raphael Huenerfauth, Photothek.netProf. Dr. Gerd Glaeske Foto Raphael Huenerfauth, Photothek.net
Gerd Glaeske believes increasing supply shortages are likely

More than 75 percent of all medication prescriptions are so called generics. Most of these drugs are made in India and China. This means long supply chains. Quality, manufacturing conditions and reliability might suffer. In China, the regions in which the products are manufactured are also affected by the corona virus, which will certainly exacerbate the delivery difficulties.

More information


Contact:
Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 3
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58559
E-Mail: gglaeske@uni-bremen.de

Cover Innovationsreport 2019Cover Innovationsreport 2019
Study on innovative medicines of the year 2016 in day to day care

This year's Innovation Report rates 21 active ingredients of the total of 31 medicines launched in 2016.

Oncologics were most frequently evaluated, five drugs contain antiviral drugs, three are recombinant coagulation factors. The remaining active ingredients cover eight further indications. For the first time, a vaccine (the HPV vaccine, which i.a. protects against cervical cancer) was rated in this report. Eight medicines were launched with a fast track assessment.

The special chapter of the report is dedicated to the current topic "vaccination and compulsory vaccination" and discusses measles, HPV and flu vaccines in particular.

The data of the RKI, the KiGGS study and the WHO state that the measles vaccination rates have still not been reached. They show that compulsory vaccination, which has already been introduced in some European countries, has not eliminated measles. The Innovation Report 2019 presents various approaches how an increase in vaccination rates could succeed and how the potential arguments of the anti-vaxxers could be. It illustrates the great importance of physician-patient communication in this context. Compulsory measles vaccination should be the ultima ratio - education and information campaigns need to be developed and strengthened in the public.

Although five medicines were rated with a green overall traffic light, the increase in red traffic lights (61% of all assessed medicines) has degraded the hope of a positive development of newly licensed medicines compared to the last year. For six medicines red hand letters with important information for physicians and patients were sent. This also confirms the assumption that current approval studies provide only a limited picture of effects and side effects, therefore pharmacovigilance studies in the "aftermarket" are urgently needed.

Medicines that represent a true therapeutic innovation and have been assessed with a green (added) benefit signal are human papillomavirus vaccines and medicines in cancer treatment of multiple myeloma (Daratumumab and Elotuzumab) and in the treatment of chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (Sacubitril/Valsartan). Only one medicine (Elbasvir/Grazoprevir) is cheaper than the ACT and has been given a green light in this category. Regarding the price twelve medicines were rated as equally expensive (marked with a yellow traffic light) and four medicines as more expensive (marked with a red traffic light). In comparison with already available therapies, five medicines are marked in green, four in yellow, and 14 in red. Thus, only nine of the new medicines on the market contribute to already approved pharmaceuticals in a positive way.

 

Innovation Report 2019:

long version

short version

Presentation of Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske


Contact:
Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 3
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58559
E-Mail: gglaeske@uni-bremen.de

Cover Hautkrebsreport 2019Cover Hautkrebsreport 2019
On 29th May Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske, Co-editor, presented the "Skin cancer report 2019" together with Techniker Krankenkasse and University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf.

Skin cancer is the most common cancer in Germany with 270,000 new cases a year. In every seventh skin cancer, the most dangerous is black skin cancer (malignant melanoma), which accounts for around 14% of skin cancers, with 86% white or pale skin cancers. The number increases every year - in the years 2009 to 2015, 50% additional diagnoses of light skin cancer and 30% of black skin cancer were made. Skin cancer is often curable if diagnosed early enough.

Longer Better Living.-InstituteLonger Better Living.-Institute
Topical Issues and Renowned Speakers Guarantee Gerd Glaeske and the BKK24 a Full Audience

How can we motivate people of different social backgrounds to change their life style, their fitness behavior and their eating habits in order to live a healthier, longer and more satisfying life? The Second Congress for “A Longer Better Life” offers an interesting program put together by Professor Gerd Glaeske of SOCIUM and the BKK24. The congress will commence on May 14th, 2019 at the Adademie des Sports in Hanover. Since it is still the social background which determines the life expectancy the congress aims at exploring the possibilities to improve the individual motivation. The topical question guaranteed that the congress was fully booked in short time.

The Congress for “A Longer Better Life” is part of the preventive work of the Institute for “A Longer Better Life” which organized by the SOCIUM together with the BKK24.

More information: Longer Better Living.-Institute


Contact:
Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 3
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58559
E-Mail: gglaeske@uni-bremen.de

Cover Innovation Report 2018Cover Innovation Report 2018
More green traffic lights than in recent years.

The Innovation Report has been published annually since 2013 by Professor Gerd Glaeske und Professor Wolf-Dieter Ludwig with the support of the Techniker Krankenkasse (TK). This report combines healthcare provision research with the evaluation of new medicines that were first offered three years ago and that have undergone an early assessment by AMNOG criteria. In this respect, the innovation report offers a kind of "late assessment" of the drugs from the year 2015. The increasing marketing of orphan drugs can also be seen in this year's Innovation Report, as well as the trend towards accelerated market entry of pharmaceuticals.

The Innovation Report 2018 critically evaluates the new drugs launched in 2015 into the pharmaceutical market for German health insurance. Many patients with serious diseases that have been only symptomatically treatable live in the hope of being cured by newly developed medicines. These include, for example, drug therapies for Alzheimer’s dementia - which are dealt with in a separate chapter in this Report - but also new medicines for the treatment of malignant diseases. In particular, with regard to the former condition, information is regularly promulgated that raises hopes of a cure, but so far there has been no real therapeutic breakthrough with regard to finding a cure for Alzheimer’s dementia.

Altogether, 32 of the 37 pharmaceutical products introduced in 2015 are included in the Innovation Report 2018. In the report, there are 7 positive and 10 negative evaluations (indicated by a green or red traffic light respectively). Numbering nearly 50 % of the products, the largest proportion is registered as having at least partial additional benefits, which is indicated by a yellow traffic light.

Orphan drugs, used to treat rare diseases which afflict no more than 5 persons per 10,000 according to the EU definition, account for a third of the new drugs. In addition, there is a clear lack of new antibiotics or drugs available in the market for treating most “other neurological diseases” and mental disorders. 

Download Innovation Report 2018:
Long version (in German)
Short version (in German)

Download:
Statement for the press conference by Gerd Glaeske (in German)
Slides for the press conference by Gerd Glaeske (in German)


Contact:
Prof. Dr. Gerd Glaeske
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 3
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58559
E-Mail: gglaeske@uni-bremen.de