In summer 2014 Rolf Müller and Heinz Rothgang were commissioned by the Senator for Labour, Women's Affairs, Health, Youth and Social Affairs in Bremen, to drawn up a report on Requirements and Supply for Traineeships in Long-Term Care.

The results out of the report on "Requirements, Supply and Prognosis for Traineeships in Long-Term Care" were presented to the Bremen State Committee on Long-Term Care on January 16th, 2015.

The report was commissioned owing to concerns that there is not enough training in long-term care. The objective was to consider the merits of a compensation mechanism for funding long-term care training in Bremen in order to avoid a shortage of skilled carers. Should such a measure be deemed necessary in order to forestall a shortage of trainee placements, the Bremen state government is empowered to impose a charge on care facilities to compensate for the cost of training allowances. In order to determine whether the demand for long-term care training can be met at the present moment and for the period until 2025, requirements and availability for the period 2014-2025 needed to be calculated.

This new report provides reliable figures and data. At present, and up until 2025, around 300-400 trainee places will be needed each year for the qualification of long-term care workers within the city state of Bremen. In 2014, however, there were well under 200 trainees in each year of training. On the basis of currently realistic assumptions, this gap will remain constant over the next 10 years. Under more favourable conditions (significantly higher growth rates and significantly reduced drop-out rates in training as well as significantly longer periods of employment in that occupation), it should be possible to reach the required number of traineeships by 2025. Before then, however, there will be a serious shortage of qualified long-term carers. In the light of current demographic trends urgent measures are required, as on the one hand there is a noticeable increase in the need for care, while on the other the potential number of available employees is expected to drop.

Dr. rer. pol. Rolf Müller
SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy
Mary-Somerville-Straße 3
28359 Bremen
Phone: +49 421 218-58554